Grey seals have undoubtedly increased in recent decades as they recover from near extirpation in the late 1940s. In some circles this recovery is actually regarded as a conservation success story.
Cod populations off eastern Canada were seriously depleted by over-fishing in the late 1960s, and further in the mid-to late 1980s, which resulted in the imposition of a moratorium on the cod fishery in 1992.
Since then, cod populations have been slow to recover but a number of stocks are now showing positive signs of recovery, even in the presence of a number of seal species.
Nonetheless, the question remains whether their recovery has been or is being impeded by seals, in particular by grey seals in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and on the Eastern Scotian Shelf.
Recently, much scientific attention has been directed to the issue of grey seals and cod. Most of the resulting papers conclude that grey seals have little impact on cod stocks. A recent manuscript suggests, however, "that seals have contributed to both natural mortality increase and lack of cod stock recovery". That claim has been publicized in the press, most recently, yesterday.
What the media has not reported is that the "Model predictions [in that paper] are not consistent with recent observed cod increase in trawl surveys". This admission by the authors of the paper – O'Boyle and Sinclair – seems to suggest that there are problems with their modeling. Instead, the authors suggest that the observations, rather than their models, "need to be confirmed". I have to say that is not the way science is normally conducted. Elsewhere in the paper, they are more circumspect.
Regardless, taken at face value, the conflicting scientific results highlighted in the DFO Science Advisory Report (2010) and O'Boyle/Sinclair manuscript, simply remind us that marine systems and interactions between seals and fisheries are complex and difficult to study. As always there is scientific uncertainty in the data and analyses associated with trying to figure out what has really been going on with grey seals and cod, and how that relationship will unfold in the future.
Of course, as soon as one mentions the future, I am reminded that we are in the midst of a period of environmental uncertainty – resulting from climate change and global warming – that is already having an impact on ice-breeding seals across the North Atlantic. Some grey seals reproduce on ice and, if that ice fails to form in the coming years, it may have implications for them as well. To the uncertainties mentioned previously, we must therefore add environmental uncertainty.
All of this uncertainty has not resulted in any noticeable abatement in calls for undertaking a massive cull of grey seals.
Nonetheless, undertaking a cull of grey seals at this time is a risky business. Scientists have repeatedly said over the past three decades that it is impossible to predict the effects of increasing or decreasing the size of a seal population on exploited fish stocks and future fishery yields from them. More uncertainty.
After more than 30 years of trying to understand the impacts of culling seals it would be fair to ask why the scientists still can't provide definitive answers. Of course, the answer to that question brings us back to the issue of complexity.
And, as noted previously, scientists – including DFO scientists – have also warned that culls can have unintended consequences. Science tells us, for example, that culling a predator like grey seals could actually result in a reduction of preferred fish stocks, the antithesis of the intended outcome. It all depends on the complex (that word again) interactions in a particular marine ecosystem.
All of the uncertainty associated with interactions between grey seals and cod, environmental change, and the various uncertainties associated with culling, call for the rigorous application of the precautionary approach.
Dr. Lavigne, along with four Dalhousie University scientists, Dr. Sara Iverson, Dr. Lindy Weilgart, Prof. Hal Whitehead, and Dr. Boris Worm, as well as Dr. Sidney Holt of Paciano, Italy, wrote an open letter to the Fisheries Minister in 2011, which further explains why a cull would be reckless.
In the letter, they expose the flaws in the way a workshop was organized to discuss and debate the issue of a seal cull. "The process by which we arrived at the present situation represents the antithesis of how science should function in the fishery management process."
The Fisheries Minister first directed the DFO to "ensure the targeted removal of grey seals". The DFO then organized a science advisory workshop in which attendees were directed to consider the negative impacts of grey seals on fisheries while ignoring the positive impacts they have.
Read the full text of this open letter here.
For more information, read Dr. Lavigne's chapter in Hindell and R, Kirkwood (eds.), Marine Mammals: Fisheries, Tourism and Management Issues: CSIRO Publishing, Collingwood, Victoria, Australia 2003, "Marine Mammals and Fisheries: The Role of Science in the Culling Debate," pp. 31-47